Handling Uncertainty

Imagine this…

You’ve just gotten a medical test done. You know your doctor should call you next week with the results, and bad results could mean a future of more tests, procedures, and possible pain. You are in a situation of intense uncertainty.

You find yourself worrying constantly: before sleep, during work, instead of interacting with loved ones. You continually permute through all the possible outcomes, what your contingency plans would be, find yourself fantasizing, horribly, about the worst possible outcome, how terrible it will be. You are a wreck by the end of the week.

Uncertainty Intolerance - what is it?

Uncertainty intolerance is the belief that uncertainty, newness, and change are dangerous threats, and that the sensation of threat that occurs when facing uncertainty is intolerable and must be controlled or eliminated.

There is, of course, always some possibility that an uncertain situation might turn out negatively. Every human being struggles to some degree with tolerating uncertainty, and it is natural and expected to experience some anxiety in uncertain situations, and to cope with that anxiety by worrying, avoiding, or trying to control the outcome. The human brain’s main task, after all, is to attempt to predict what will happen and respond effectively.

But people who are very intolerant of uncertainty view uncertain situations as automatically negative, always stressful, and super upsetting. Those who are more tolerant of uncertainty might view some uncertain situations as stressful, but might view others as just fine, or even exciting and possibly enjoyable. And most importantly, people who can tolerate uncertainty are able to note that feeling uncertain might be uncomfortable, but it is not necessarily dangerous or unmanageable.

Why is it important to know about this?

In everyday life, we constantly encounter situations where the outcome is not 100% certain.

These typically fall into three main categories:

New Situations: Any situation or event that we haven’t done before is by definition uncertain -- you don’t know what to predict. Meeting new people, attending a new class, traveling to an unfamiliar place, or trying a new activity will always spark some feelings of uncertainty.

Ambiguous Situations: Some situations or events feel uncertain because they are not well-defined, or what’s actually going on is unclear. For example, when someone tells you “we need to talk,” what the discussion topic will be is ambiguous, and therefore there will be uncertainty. Or if someone laughs in a conversation with you, there might be some ambiguity about whether they are laughing at you, or simply enjoying humor -- there is some uncertainty about what will happen next or how they feel about you.

Unpredictable Situations: Some situations are uncertain because there’s simply no way to predict what will happen. You don’t know exactly what will happen in an exam you have studied for-- you might do your best to learn the assigned material, but you just can’t predict what exact questions will be asked.

How can I know if I’m challenged by this?

Ultimately, we are all faced with uncertainty all day every day -- there is no way to be 100% sure about anything. It is kind of scary, when you think about it. And it’s normal to think about it, or worry and plan a bit.

When we run into trouble is when the following happens in response to uncertainty:

We routinely perceive a higher level of uncertainty than actually exists (for example, frantically worrying that our plane might crash in turbulence, when actually we have 99.99% confidence that it will not.)
We find the sensations of uncertainty so unbearable that we’d rather remove ourselves from uncertain situations, and thereby shrink our lives (for example, hating “waiting for results” so badly that you never take the MCAT at all.) We do this through avoidance.
We seek constant reassurance from external sources in an effort to reduce the sensations of uncertainty (for example, asking a new partner “Do you love me?” five times a day because you’re not certain the relationship will work out the way you want.)
We try desperately to control the sensations of uncertainty, by obsessively and chronically worrying (for example, envisioning and stressing about presumed catastrophic outcomes). This actually worsens our mood, disrupts sleep, and makes it even harder to effectively cope with outcomes, completely backfiring.

These coping mechanisms work in the short term - they give us a fleeting sense of predictability or control... But that sense is false. The fact is, you can take reasonable precautions and do solid planning, and after that you don’t have complete control over anything, and pretending you do might actually get in the way of truly experiencing and effectively coping with what happens next.

If you can practice accepting the sensation of uncertainty as a fundamental, relatable part of the human experience, you will be able to approach situations with your full mental flexibility, and make peace with what does come your way.

Tools

Exposure to Uncertainty

Behavioral Experiments

Behavioral experiments involve testing out feared predictions. Here, you would be asked to write down the following three aspects of a situation:

Your feared outcome
The actual outcome
How you coped with the outcome

Over time, the goal of the behavioral experiments is to move from small events to larger ones, across multiple settings (work, home, social settings) and to observe that in most uncertain situations, the outcome is tolerable, and when it is not, that it can be managed.

Distancing Yourself From Your Thoughts

To distance yourself from your worry thoughts, you must first identify that they are happening, and then realize that they are not accurate predictions, only thoughts. You might think "Well, this could be the day the plane crashes." Then, don't react to it. Remind yourself “okay, that’s a thought I had, but it’s not a prediction.” Thank your mind for trying to protect you, but remind it that vigilantly worrying doesn’t actually affect the outcome.

If you ever find yourself buying into your mind’s story that worrying will actually help control the situation, try using our [LINK] worry tool. You might actually have important action steps to take, reasonable precautions, or you might find that you’ve done all you can and the outcome is out of your control.

Staying in the Moment

Human minds, so predisposed towards trying to plan for the future, are very good at conjuring imaginary scenarios. It’s what helps us plan. But it also means that our imaginary futures can scare the crap out of us.

The best antidote to uncertainty about the future is to ground yourself in the present moment: you are not currently in danger. Nothing bad is happening. Take breaths, notice the air moving through your lungs. Notice that even if your feared outcome DID come true, say, you failed your MCAT, you would still be able to take breaths. Notice yourself, in this moment, tolerating uncertainty. Try to tolerate it for ten more seconds. Then another ten. Then another. Notice how your mind moves and shifts, trying to send you more thoughts, trying to send you more signals of urgency.

Being in wise mind is an exercise in mindfulness. Mindfulness is defined as being aware of one’s internal experience and external environment in the moment and without judgment.

If you want to practice being more mindful and having more access to your wise mind, it can be as easy as simply observing and labeling an emotion in the moment. In pausing to observe and then utilizing language to label, we are activating both our right and left hemispheres simultaneously, which by definition is activating the Wise Mind.

Learn more about the ineffective ways we try to cope with uncertainty:

Check out out the information below to learn about other means of coping with uncertainty:

Remember, certainty is a feeling, not a fact. Seeking certainty is, ultimately, a fool’s errand. Once you understand that gaining certainty is NOT POSSIBLE in the real world, you can abandon your quest for it, and instead pursue things that are attainable, such as excitement, enjoyment, love, and compassion.

When might you use uncertainty tolerance in your life?